It is here. New Year 2018, full of new resolutions, expectations and plans. And I wish to all of you a perfect entering to the new year, so you can fulfill all your plans and desires. I wish to traders a quiet mind that must be always present during trading and many green numbers in the portfolio 🙂
As traders, we usually feel that the old trades, old profits and losses are behind us and we go to the next year with a clean shield. Some traders have improved their trading systems, or are determined to better keep their capital and manage the risk to avoid unpleasant losses. I personally do not plan anything. Last year was cool for me in general, this means steady profits. The overall success rate was below 50%, but the losses were very little or almost zero.
In recent months, I have devoted more time to markets with energies. Those are the largest commodity markets that affect other groups of commodities. Energies have been, and still are full of interesting opportunities. I am delighted that I have been able to predict the development of energies in recent times because spreads and futures have been in a clear contradiction with seasonality. I have expected that, as you could see in our Spread Report or here on the blog.
In connection with this, I am getting to the new year 2018. Even though I am expecting an oil correction in the short term, I think that oil will be a strong market in 2018 and will offer interesting opportunities. However, I can tell you that for most of the time, the main part of my portfolio won´t be the classic bear spreads, which attracts many inexperienced traders with their beautiful seasonality.
Grains and sugar
It is likely that the year 2018 will be in the name of growing inflation, of which, in addition to oil, grain could also profit. For sure, I’m going to lurk, for example, on bull soybean spreads that play a securing role in my portfolio. And I also think that this year, sugar could finally perform the expected growth, so we can expect interesting opportunities for bull spreads.
Furthermore, I cannot skip the long-term most profitable underlying asset – pork. I’m once again very curious about the traditional bear spreads, of which I have had good profits every year. Of course, there is a question of the grain influence. Pork and corn are, to some extent, connected markets. If grain starts to grow more strongly, it could affect the behavior of the bear spreads.
Please do not take this as trading predictions. I always look at the current situation when planning my trades. This is more like my “New Year’s Estimate”, where there might be some interesting opportunities this year. This, of course, does not mean that these opportunities will eventually emerge. But at least, these are the markets that I will follow in more detail and which you will certainly hear much more about in my analysis.
I wish to everyone a happy year 2018.